21% of Americans who voted for Joe Biden in 2020 say they’re less likely to vote for him in November because of the job he is doing on the Israel-Hamas war. This includes 7% who say they’re “much less likely” to vote for him.
WHY IT MATTERS
In what is expected to be another close election, even a small erosion in Biden’s support could lead to a Donald Trump victory in November.
STRONG DISAPPROVAL
The new poll from America’s New Majority Project reveals that 55% disapprove of the job Biden is doing as President when it comes to the Israel-Hamas war. This includes 32.5% who “strongly disapprove.”
This high disapproval threatens Biden’s re-election.
Among all Americans, 41% say Biden’s performance as President on the Israel-Hamas war makes them less likely to vote for him in November, with 28% saying they’re “much less likely” to vote for him.
This includes 22% of Democrats who say they’re less likely to vote for Biden, including 7.6% who say much less likely.
ALIENATING THE BASE AND UNDECIDED VOTERS
Biden’s job performance on the Israel-Hamas war has also alienated other groups of plausible potential voters:
- 38% of independents say they’re less likely to vote for Biden, including 24.3% who say much less likely. (15.4% say more likely.)
- 42% of swing voters say they’re less likely to vote for Biden, including 26.3% who say much less likely. (18.2% say more likely.)
- 44% of voters undecided in the 2024 race for President say they’re less likely to vote for Biden, including 27% who are “much less likely.” Just 5.9% say they’re more likely to vote for him.
- 51.1% of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. supporters say they’re less likely to vote for Biden, including 25.9% who say they’re much less likely. Just 13.7% say they’re more likely to vote for Biden.
- 48.2% of other third-party candidate voters say they’re less likely to vote for Biden, including 25.3% who say they’re much less likely. Just 15.8% say they’re more likely to vote for Biden.
PROTESTING THE PROTESTS
The poll also reveals that a plurality of Americans disapprove of the job Biden is doing when it comes to the protests on college campuses over the Israel-Hamas war. 48.8% disapprove of Biden’s job, including 31.4% who strongly disapprove, while 32.1% approve.
Somewhat counterintuitively, Biden has more support among the 32% of Americans who support the protests — which, in part, oppose Bidens’s policy regarding the war — than among the 55% who oppose the protests.
- 69% of those who support the protests on college campuses disagree with the statement “I will never vote for Joe Biden.” Just 28.1% agree.
- 46% of supporters of the protests approve of Biden’s performance on the issue, while 47% disapprove. 14% of protest supporters strongly approve of Biden, while 21% strongly disapprove.
- Similarly, 33% of supporters of the protests say Biden’s performance on the issue makes them more likely to vote for Biden, while 34% say it makes them less likely. 15% of protest supporters say they are much more likely and 18% say they are much less likely.