What a national split-sample test reveals about the messages that move voters.
Key Takeaways
Fact-anchored contrast messages outperform attack messages on five tested issues—a consistent net differential of 5 to 9 points overall, and up to 14 points among Independents.
Believability is higher for contrast messages on every issue—gaps range from 6 to 14 points. The attack message never exceeds 52% believability and never matches the floor of any contrast message tested.
Contrast messages produce stronger movement among Independents on four of five issues—most pronounced on healthcare (+26 vs. +12) and taxes (+23 vs. +12). Independents are the demographic most sensitive to message structure.
Two structural elements drive the gap: a verification offer and a positive statement of what the candidate stands for. Attack messages include neither.