Newt an American Majority

Defining The New American Majority

Prepared by McLaughlin & Associates

National Survey: Strategic Outlook
Universe: 2,000 Likely Voters
Margin of Error: +/- 2.2%
Field Dates: May 9-14, 2022

Executive Summary

This national survey, which was modeled on the turnout from the 2020 presidential election, found there are already significant trends widely recognized to forecast a Republican majority in the House and Senate after the November 8, 2022, elections.

This poll shows that there is very strong voter support for restoring an America that works with a New American Majority. The Republican base appears energized; however, there is a larger majority to be created if voters not in this base are asked to join a new majority – an American Majority.

What is widely unreported is the profound and historic opportunity not just to create a “Republican majority”, but rather a longer term, realigning American Majority.

Unique to this national survey, we tested 24 critical issue positions with specific language based on previously poll and focus group research. Gingrich 360 and the American Majority Project have already completed a national survey of 1,500 American swing voters in August of 2021 and subsequent focus groups of swing voters [description research on page 13].

From this research and learning, in this recent national survey, we shaped the language and positions on important current election issues for Republican candidates for Congress to project to the voters.

7 Economic Issue Positions
4 Education Issue Positions
4 Health Care Issue Positions
4 Immigration Issue Positions
3 Crime Issue Positions
2 Moral Issue Positions

Each question was structured to test the upper limit for voting preference, after hearing the position, whether a voter would be more or less likely to vote for “a REPUBLICAN candidate who believes…” We specifically said “Republican” assuming there was a partisan ceiling among the voters; however, these salient election positions defy the partisan and ideological ceilings. 

What was remarkable was that among the twenty-four issue positions, designed to create an American Majority, every position tested 50% or higher for more likely to vote Republican.

  • 24 of 24 issue positions made 50%-plus more likely to vote Republican
  • 21 of 24 issue positions made 60%-plus more likely to vote Republican
  • 12 of 24 issue positions made 66%-plus more likely to vote Republican

This is well above the roughly one-third of the voters that identify as Republicans. This is a New American Majority capturing majorities among independents and at times Democrats across all demographic segments of the American electorate.

Understanding who the voters are in the groups that react to these issue positions defines who could potentially constitute the New American Majority.

Analyzing the total American November electorate among likely voters by these important issues, there appears to be three critical voting groups:

  1. The New American Majority
  2. Persuadable Voters
  3. Big Government Socialists

New American Majority

In total, 44% of all voters said that 20 or more of the positions would make them more likely to vote for the Republican for Congress. This is a huge electoral base, but the base is still not above 50% of the electorate. Another 18% of all voters said that 15 to 19 of the positions would make them more likely to vote for the Republican for Congress. In total this would account for 62% of all American voters being more likely to vote for Republicans for Congress. This is well beyond the generic vote for Congress of any national poll and well above any Republican or conservative coalition.

Among the 62% of the electorate that becomes more likely to vote for Republicans on 15 or more issues, they are more likely to be white voters (74%) and less likely to be Black voters (9%). An additional 11% are Hispanic, 4% Asian, and 3% other.

Their average age is 51. Fifty percent (50%) are women. Only 26% are Democrats, 50% Republican, and 25% independents. They voted 52% Trump to only 33% Biden. Only 32% approve of Biden, 68% now disapprove. Only 26% vote for a generic Democrat, 65% vote Republican. They are only 19% liberal, 31% moderate and 49% conservative. Only 38% are prochoice and 62% pro-life. Forty five percent (45%) own guns in the household. Single voters 28% to married voters 54%. More religious 41% Protestant, 26% Catholic to only 15% no religion. Thirty seven percent (37%) are college graduates; average income $73,100; less urban 27% and suburban 46%, 26% rural. 

Persuadable Voters

Another 13% would be more likely to vote Republican on 10 to 14 of the issue positions. This would make 75% of the American electorate available to a New American Majority Coalition.

The real challenge for building the New American Majority is to attract the 13% of voters who are more likely to vote Republican on 10 to 14 of the issues we tested. They are less likely to be white voters (49%) and more likely to be Black voters (19%). An additional 24% are Hispanic, 5% Asian, and 3% other. They’re younger with their average age at 43 years. Fifty five percent (55%) are women. Fifty percent (50%) are Democrats, 19% Republican, and 31% independents. They voted for Biden 70% to 25% Trump. Fifty eight percent (58%) approve of Biden, but 42% now disapprove. They vote for a generic Democrat 58%, 28% prefer a Republican for Congress. They are 33% liberal, 43% moderate, and 24% conservative. Sixty three percent (63%) are prochoice and 37% pro-life. Thirty five percent (35%) have guns in the household. Single voters are 46%, to married voters 34%. 45% are college graduates; average income $71,300; more urban 31% and suburban 51%, only 18% rural. 

Big Government Socialists

Only 25% of the electorate remain relatively unmoved to vote for Republicans for Congress with 9 or less issues making them more likely for vote Republican. Among the 25% of the electorate that only becomes more likely to vote for Republicans on 9 or fewer issues, they are less likely to be white voters (59%) and more likely to be Black voters (23%) than the other voter universes (Hispanics 13% and Asians 4%). Their average age is 49. Fifty six percent (56%) are women. Sixty one percent (61%) are Democrats, only 12% Republican. They voted for Biden 79% to 18% Trump. Seventy two percent (72%) approve of Biden, but 28% now disapprove. They vote for a generic Democrat 72% to 14% Republican. They are 43% liberal, 36% moderate and only 21% conservative. Seventy three percent (73%) are prochoice and only 26% pro-life. About equal single voters 40% to married voters 38%. Forty two percent (42%) are college graduates; average income $63,700; more urban 30% and suburban 54%, and only 16% rural.

Profile of New American Majority

Profile of New American Majority

Issue Positions

Ranking the issue positions by topic shows the following impact to make American voters more likely to vote Republican.

You can get more detailed results from these questions, including crosstabs, here.

May 2022 Poll of Likely Voters

7 Economic Issue Positions:

“A Republican candidate who believes the best way to combat inflation, improve the economy, and make things more affordable is to put more money back in the pockets of workers and families by providing tax relief and creating jobs and better salaries by incentivizing businesses and helping small businesses grow.”

  • All Voters: 70% More Likely (Much more likely 42%, Somewhat more likely 28%) vs. 15% less Likely
  • 92% More Likely (Much more likely 62%, Somewhat more likely 30%) vs. 5% less Likely
  • 58% More Likely (Much more likely 21%, Somewhat more likely 37%) vs. 26% less Likely

“A Republican candidate who supports a common-sense, diversified approach to domestic energy production that includes nuclear power, clean coal, oil and natural gas production and renewable energy production from solar and wind to ensure energy independence and security, reliable energy service, and more stable and affordable prices.”

  • All Voters: 69% More Likely (Much more likely 38%, Somewhat more likely 31%) vs. 16% less Likely
  • New American Majority: 91% More Likely (Much more likely 56%, Somewhat more likely 35%) vs. 5% less Likely
  • Persuadable Voters: 60% More Likely (Much more likely 20%, Somewhat more likely 40%) vs. 22% less Likely

“A Republican candidate who believes the government’s reckless spending and debt is making inflation worse and making basic things like food and fuel more expensive for people. It’s time for the government to act responsibly by living within a budget to get inflation under control and make it more affordable to live and raise a family.”

  • All Voters: 69% More Likely (Much more likely 45%, Somewhat more likely 24%) vs. 17% less Likely
  • New American Majority: 93% More Likely (Much more likely 68%, Somewhat more likely 25%) vs. 5% less Likely
  • Persuadable Voters: 59% More Likely (Much more likely 18%, Somewhat more likely 41%) vs. 27% less Likely

“A Republican candidate who believes it’s time to stop stealing from our kid’s future and start paying down the skyrocketing national debt that is continuing to grow above $30 trillion dollars. We can’t afford to continue the reckless spending.”

  • All Voters: 67% More Likely (Much more likely 40%, Somewhat more likely 27%) vs. 17% less Likely
  • New American Majority: 91% More Likely (Much more likely 60%, Somewhat more likely 31%) vs. 5% less Likely
  • Persuadable Voters: 51% More Likely (Much more likely 16%, Somewhat more likely 35%) vs. 31% less Likely

“A Republican candidate who supports increasing domestic oil and natural gas production to make gas and heating oil more affordable and to become more energy independent so we can reduce the world’s dependency on foreign oil, including stopping importing oil from America’s enemies like Russia, Venezuela and Iran.”

  • All Voters: 66% More Likely (Much more likely 43%, Somewhat more likely 23%) vs. 18% less Likely
  • New American Majority: 92% More Likely (Much more likely 65%, Somewhat more likely 27%) vs. 6% less Likely
  • Persuadable Voters: 46% More Likely (Much more likely 14%, Somewhat more likely 31%) vs. 34% less Likely

“A Republican candidate who supports a practical approach to combating climate change that includes investment in proven solutions, like next generation nuclear plants, which are smaller, safer, and emit zero greenhouse gas emissions, reducing global emissions by exporting natural gas to countries that currently rely on coal for power, and, investing in infrastructure improvements to make sure our cities are more resistant to extreme weather.”

  • All Voters: 63% More Likely (Much more likely 32%, Somewhat more likely 31%) vs. 18% less Likely
  • New American Majority: 83% More Likely (Much more likely 46%, Somewhat more likely 37%) vs. 9% less Likely
  • Persuadable Voters: 54% More Likely (Much more likely 18%, Somewhat more likely 36%) vs. 25% less Likely

“A Republican candidate who supports requiring able-bodied adults to work or go to school to qualify for taxpayer funded benefits such as food stamps, health care, or welfare.”

  • All Voters: 63% More Likely (Much more likely 37%, Somewhat more likely 26%) vs. 22% less Likely
  • New American Majority: 87% More Likely (Much more likely 56%, Somewhat more likely 31%) vs. 10% less Likely
  • Persuadable Voters: 48% More Likely (Much more likely 15%, Somewhat more likely 33%) vs. 35% less Likely


4 Education Issue Positions:

“A Republican candidate who supports raising education standards in public schools and expanding gifted and talented and honors programs.”

  • All Voters: 65% More Likely (Much more likely 34%, Somewhat more likely 31%) vs. 16% Less Likely 16%
  • New American Majority: 86% More Likely (Much more likely 51%, Somewhat more likely 35%) vs. 7% less Likely
  • Persuadable Voters: 58% More Likely (Much more likely 16%, Somewhat more likely 42%) vs. 25% less Likely

“A Republican candidate who wants to make schools more open and transparent, so parents are better informed and have more say over their children’s education.”

  • All Voters: 65% More Likely (Much more likely 39%, Somewhat more likely 26%) vs. 18% Less Likely
  • New American Majority: 90% More Likely (Much more likely 58%, Somewhat more likely 31%) vs. 5% less Likely
  • Persuadable Voters: 47% More Likely (Much more likely 15%, Somewhat more likely 32%) vs. 33% less Likely

“A Republican candidate who supports preventing political or social indoctrination of students in public schools and supports requiring schools to get back to teaching the basics like reading, writing, and math.”

  • All Voters: 64% More likely (Much more likely 41%, Somewhat more likely 23%) vs. Less Likely
  • New American Majority: 90% More Likely (Much more likely 61%, Somewhat more likely 29%) vs. 8% less Likely
  • Persuadable Voters: 46% More Likely (Much more likely 15%, Somewhat more likely 31%) vs. 31% less Likely

“A Republican candidate who supports equal opportunity in education that doesn’t punish students by forcing them to attend a struggling or failing government-run school, but instead provides tuition funds to parents to provide the opportunity to send their children to the private, church-run or public charter school of their choice.”

  • All Voters: 58% More Likely (Much more likely 31%, Somewhat more likely 27%) vs. 22% Less Likely
  • New American Majority: 79% More Likely (Much more likely 46%, Somewhat more likely 33%) vs. 13% less Likely
  • Persuadable Voters: 51% More Likely (Much more likely 15%, Somewhat more likely 36%) vs. 30% less Likely

4 Immigration Issue Positions

“A Republican candidate who supports deporting gang members, drug dealers, and violent criminals who are not American citizens.”

  • All Voters: 68% More Likely (Much more likely 46%, Somewhat more likely 22%) vs. 17% Less Likely
  • New American Majority: 92% More Likely (Much more likely 69%, Somewhat more likely 23%) vs. 6% less Likely
  • Persuadable Voters: 54% More Likely (Much more likely 16%, Somewhat more likely 38%) vs. 31% less Likely

“A Republican candidate who opposes giving illegal immigrants taxpayer funded benefits, including unemployment benefits and welfare, because it puts too much stress on our taxpayer funded safety-net programs designed for American citizens and it encourages more illegal immigration.”

  • All Voters: 62% More Likely (Much more likely 42%, Somewhat more likely 20%) vs. 23% less likely
  • New American Majority: 87% More Likely (Much more likely 62%, Somewhat more likely 24%) vs. 11% less Likely
  • Persuadable Voters: 38% More Likely (Much more likely 16%, Somewhat more likely 22%) vs. 43% less Likely

“A Republican candidate who believes we have a crisis at the border and who supports securing our borders to help prevent illegal immigration, including finishing the wall, combating drug and human trafficking, and strengthening our national security.”

  • All Voters: 61% More Likely (Much more likely 42%, Somewhat more likely 19%) vs. 24% Less Likely
  • New American Majority: 87% More Likely (Much more likely 65%, Somewhat more likely 22%) vs. 10% less Likely
  • Persuadable Voters: 37% More Likely (Much more likely 14%, Somewhat more likely 23%) vs. 45% less Likely

“A Republican candidate who would end the current policy of secretly sending illegal immigrants into cities and towns around the country.”

  • All Voters: 60% More Likely (Much more likely 40%, Somewhat more likely 20%) vs. 21% Less Likely
  • New American Majority: 86% More Likely (Much more likely 60%, Somewhat more likely 26%) vs. 9% less Likely
  • Persuadable Voters: 35% More Likely (Much more likely 14%, Somewhat more likely 22%) vs. 39% less Likely

4 Health Care Issue Positions

“A Republican candidate who supports providing additional public resources to improve and reform mental health services, particularly suicide prevention.”

  • All Voters: 68% More Likely (Much more likely 36%, Somewhat more likely 32%) vs. 15% Less Likely
  • New American Majority: 88% More Likely (Much more likely 52%, Somewhat more likely 36%) vs. 6% less Likely
  • Persuadable Voters: 64% More Likely (Much more likely 20%, Somewhat more likely 44%) vs. 25% less Likely

“A Republican candidate who believes we should reduce healthcare costs and improve quality by making price and outcomes more transparent.”

  • All Voters: 68% More Likely (Much more likely 36%, Somewhat more likely 32%) vs. 16% Less Likely
  • New American Majority: 90% More Likely (Much more likely 54%, Somewhat more likely 36%) vs. 6% less Likely
  • Persuadable Voters: 58% More Likely (Much more likely 17%, Somewhat more likely 41%) vs. 28% less Likely

“A Republican candidate who believes the government should allow for more health care choices, so Americans can personalize their health care coverage to fit their specific medical and financial needs.”

  • All Voters: 68% More Likely (Much more likely 36%, Somewhat more likely 32%) vs. 16% Less Likely
  • New American Majority: 90% More Likely (Much more likely 54%, Somewhat more likely 36%) vs. 5% less Likely
  • Persuadable Voters: 64% More Likely (Much more likely 19%, Somewhat more likely 45%) vs. 23% less Likely

“A Republican candidate who believes we should fix healthcare in America by putting patients and doctors in charge instead of insurance companies and big government?

  • All Voters: 67% More likely (Much more likely 37%, Somewhat more likely 30%) vs. 17% Less Likely
  • New American Majority: 88% More Likely (Much more likely 54%, Somewhat more likely 34%) vs. 7% less Likely
  • Persuadable Voters: 61% More Likely (Much more likely 23%, Somewhat more likely 38%) vs. 26% less Likely

3 Crime Issue Positions

“A Republican candidate who supports tougher penalties for criminals who commit theft, property destruction, and violent or sexual crimes.”

  • All Voters: 69% More Likely (Much more likely 42%, Somewhat more likely 27%) vs. 16% Less Likely
  • New American Majority: 93% More Likely (Much more likely 63%, Somewhat more likely 30%) vs. 5% less Likely
  • Persuadable Voters: 52% More Likely (Much more likely 17%, Somewhat more likely 36%) vs. 29% less Likely

 “A Republican candidate who will combat crime and drugs by fully-funding law enforcement to ensure they receive better training and have all the necessary resources to keep us safe.”

  • All Voters: 67% More Likely (Much more likely 41%, Somewhat more likely 26%) vs. 18% Less Likely
  • New American Majority: 93% More Likely (Much more likely 62%, Somewhat more likely 31%) vs. 5% less Likely
  • Persuadable Voters: 53% More Likely (Much more likely 15%, Somewhat more likely 38%) vs. 33% less Likely

“A Republican candidate who opposes radical prosecutors who refuse to enforce property crimes and would force prosecutors to do their job and actually prosecute criminals, instead of letting them go free without facing any justice for shop lifting, robbery, and car theft.”

  • All Voters: 64% More Likely (Much more likely 39%, Somewhat more likely 25%) vs. 19% Less Likely
  • New American Majority: 89% More Likely (Much more likely 59%, Somewhat more likely 30%) vs. 8% less Likely
  • Persuadable Voters: 46% More Likely (Much more likely 12%, Somewhat more likely 34%) vs. 31% less Likely

2 Moral Issue Positions

“A Republican candidate who believes transgender females who were born male should be banned from competing in female sports. Transgender female athletes like Lia Thomas, the swimmer from the university of Pennsylvania, who compete and win in female athletic sports have an unfair advantage and take away opportunities from biological females who want a level playing field in their sport.”

  • All Voters: 57% More likely (Much more likely 38%, Somewhat more likely 19%) vs. 24% Less Likely
  • New American Majority: 81% More Likely (Much more likely 57%, Somewhat more likely 23%) vs. 12% less Likely
  • Persuadable Voters: 36% More Likely (Much more likely 13%, Somewhat more likely 23%) vs. 43% less Likely

“A Republican candidate who opposes and will fight to block extreme legislation that essentially legalizes infanticide by decriminalizing and protecting parents and medical staff from any criminal or civil liability for the death of newborn babies in their care up to 28-days after birth, even if the death is declared suspicious.”

  • All Voters: 50% More Likely (Much more likely 29%, Somewhat more likely 21%) vs. 28% Less likely
  • New American Majority: 70% More Likely (Much more likely 44%, Somewhat more likely 26%) vs. 19% Less likely
  • Persuadable Voters: 34% More Likely (Much more likely 10%, Somewhat more likely 24%) vs. 38% Less likely

Description of Research

Gingrich 360 & American Majority Project developed voter quantitative and qualitative research conducted by McLaughlin & Associates.

Quantitative Research: Two national surveys were conducted.

  • National Voter Survey: A national survey was conducted among 2,000 likely general election voters. All interviews were conducted online between May 9-14, 2022.The sample of 2,000 likely general election voters has an accuracy of +/- 2.2% at a 95% confidence interval.
  • National Swing Voters Survey: A national survey was conducted among 1,500 likely general election swing voters. All interviews were conducted online between August 14-19, 2021. The sample of 1,500 likely general election swing voters has an accuracy of

+/- 2.5% at a 95% confidence interval.

Qualitative Research: Ten focus groups were conducted among key swing voter segments. Participants were screened and identified as swing voters through a series of identifiers as it relates to their political and voting behavior. These include political ideology (excluding “very liberal” and “very conservative”), voting behavior (excluding “always vote Republican” and “always vote Democrat”), and the generic ballot (excluding “definitely vote Democrat” and “Definitely vote Republican”). The participants were then segmented into racial and ethnic cohorts. These include white, black, Hispanic, Chinese, and Hindu voters. The first round of focus groups consisted of voters 65 years of age and older; the second set of focus groups consisted of voters 20 to 64 years of age.  The targeted voter segments included:

  • September 22, 2021: White Female + Male Voters Over 65
  • September 23, 2021: Black Female + Male Voters Over 65
  • September 29, 2021: Hispanic Female + Male Voters Over 65
  • September 30, 2021: Chinese Female + Male Voters All Ages
  • November 29, 2021:  White Female + Male Voters 20 to 64
  • December 1, 2021: Black Female Voters 20 to 64
  • December 2, 2021: Back Male Voters 20 to 64
  • December 6, 2021: Hindu Females – All Ages
  • December 7, 2021: Hindu Males – All Ages
  • December 16, 2021: Hispanic Female + Male Voters 20 to 64