A recent Gallup poll shows a decline of nine points in their Economic Confidence Index, the first decline in seven months.
WHY IT MATTERS—Rapid inflation, stagnant wages, and the rising cost of living all harm voters’ economic security. While President Biden has campaigned on social issues and his opposition to Trump, voters are mainly concerned with being able to afford gas and groceries. Decreasing confidence in the economy may decide the outcome of the election.
THE NUMBERS—Gallup’s Economic Confidence Index measures Americans’ confidence in the economy on a theoretical scale of +100 to -100. Results closer to +100 means the economy is excellent and improving and results closer to -100 means the economy is poor and doing worse.
The current Index, conducted during the month of April, is at -29, down from -20 in March 2024:
- Since 1992, the best rated Index was January 2000 at +56.
- The worst recorded Index was October 2008 at -72.
When asked to rate economic conditions as good/excellent, only fair, or poor during April 2024, more respondents answered negatively and less respondents answered positively:
- 44% said the economy was poor, compared to 39% in March.
- 32% said the economy was fair, compared to 30% in March.
- 24% said the economy was good/excellent, compared to 30% in March.
Gallup observed similar results when they asked respondents if the economy is getting better or worse:
- 67% said the economy is getting worse, up from 63% in March.
- 29% said the economy is getting better, down from 33% in March.
Perspectives on the economy change with party affiliation:
- Democrats are more optimistic at +31, although this is down from +35 in March.
- Republicans are more negative at -71, compared to -62 in March.
- Independents are more negative at -38, compared to -28 in March.
BOTTOM LINE—The economy is one of the most important indicators for how an election will swing. Gallup notes that the current Economic Confidence Index is similar to the one measured during George H.W. Bush’s losing reelection campaign against Bill Clinton. Incumbents are more likely to win elections if confidence in the economy is neutral or positive, and less likely if confidence is negative. If confidence continues to decline in the lead up to election day, it could greatly harm Biden’s chances at reelection.
GO DEEPER—U.S. Economic Confidence Falls for First Time Since October