76% of voters support “stopping the tax increase” scheduled for next year, compared to 56% who support “extending the 2017 tax cuts” that expire at the end of this year.
WHY IT MATTERS
Taxes are scheduled to increase on all income earners next year due to the expiration of the lower tax rates instituted in the 2017 Tax Cut and Jobs Act. The GOP budget bill being debated in Congress now is expected to continue these rates. With a narrow majority in Congress, the most effective messaging and framing to build support for the bill is vital.
HOW TO USE THIS DATA
Advocates for the GOP budget bill should frame the tax provisions as “stopping the tax increase” scheduled for next year and put opponents on the defensive for supporting “allowing a tax increase” on nearly all income earners.
Click on the image below to read the full report…or read the summary below.
Methodology
- In the survey, we asked a series of split sample questions. The split sample size was 1,000 RV for each.
- Version A’s questions were framed around an impending tax increase.
- Version B’s questions were framed around the expiration of the 2017 tax cuts.
- This survey builds on our previous research testing these two framings that referred to the “Trump tax cuts” in Version B. In this new survey, we instead referred to the “2017 tax cuts,” demonstrating that the message superiority for Version A is not based on partisan reaction to the Trump name.
Awareness
- Less than half of voters are aware of next year’s tax increase / expiration of the 2017 tax cuts.
- Awareness is similar across partisan, gender, ethnic, age, and ideological demographics.
Initial Support for Tax Rate Changes
- 76% support stopping next year’s tax increase, while just 12% support allowing taxes to increase. Those who support stopping the tax increase include 79% of Republicans, 75% of Democrats, and 73% of independents. It also includes 72% of “Trump Persuadable” voters and 75% of leaning and undecided New Majority voters.
- Meanwhile, just 56% support extending the 2017 tax cuts, while 18% support allowing them to expire. Those supporting include 69% of Republicans, 49% of Democrats and 47% of independents. It also includes 57% of “Trump Persuadable” voters and 73% of leaning and undecided New Majority voters.
Initial Congressional Ballot Support
- 56% of voters say they are more likely to vote for a GOP candidate for Congress who supports stopping the tax increase, while 24% support a Democrat who supports allowing taxes to increase. 21% are unsure. This is a 12-point improvement for the GOP candidate compared to the generic congressional ballot. The improvement comes from a 19-point improvement among Democrats and a 20-point improvement among independents. Among target voters, the GOP candidate in this scenario gains 49% among “Trump Persuadable” voters and 8 percentage points from New Majority voters.
- Meanwhile, just 46% of voters say they are more likely to vote for a GOP candidate for Congress who supports extending the 2017 tax cuts, while 33% support a Democrat who supports allowing the 2017 tax cuts to expire. This is only a 2-point improvement for the GOP candidate compared to the generic congressional ballot.
Informed Support for Tax Rate Changes
- Respondents in both groups were then given information about the impact of the scheduled tax increase / expiration of the 2017 tax cuts for middle class families, parents, small businesses, and family-owned farms. They were then asked again for their support for tax changes.
- 75% support stopping the tax increase – virtually identical to support before learning details of the scheduled tax changes.
- 69% support extending the tax cuts – a 13-point increase compared to the previous question before learning of the impact of allowing the tax cuts to expire. Increases in support came from all groups, but the largest came from Democrats and Left Minority voters.
- These results show that “stopping the tax increase” is still a more effective message than “extending the tax cuts” even after voters are aware of the benefit the 2017 tax cuts had on middle class families and popular groups such as small business and family farmers. Stopping the tax increase is particularly stronger among independents, younger voters, and undecided or leaning New Majority voters.
Informed Congressional Candidate Support
- Respondents from both groups were again reminded of the impact of the scheduled tax increase / expiration of the 2017 tax cuts, and then asked again which candidate for Congress they would support.
- 59% support a Republican candidate who supports stopping the tax increase, while 21% support a Democrat who supports allowing taxes to increase. This is a 3-point improvement for the GOP candidate over the initial tax ballot question, and a 15-point improvement from the generic congressional ballot.
- Meanwhile, just 53% support a Republican candidate who supports extending the 2017 tax cuts and 28% support a Democrat who supports allowing the 2017 tax cut to expire. This is a 7-point increase in support for the GOP candidate from the initial tax ballot question and a 9-point increase from the generic ballot.
- Like with the informed support for tax rate changes question, we see that being informed of the details of the tax changes has a larger impact on the “extend the tax cuts” group, but the improvement is still not enough to match the performance of the “stop the tax increase” message.
Increasing Taxes on the Wealthy – Will It Help GOP Candidates?
- Survey results showed that allowing taxes to increase on the wealthy but stay the same for everyone else was popular. This idea earned majority or plurality support among both groups of survey respondents. It is notable that raising taxes on the wealthy is more popular than allowing tax cuts to expire for the wealthy.
- However, this popularity does not translate to increased support for GOP candidates who favor increasing taxes / not extending the tax cuts in hypothetical congressional matchups.
- 58% support a Republican candidate who supports allowing taxes to increase on the wealthy but stop the tax increase for everyone else, and 21% support a Democrat who supports allowing taxes to increase on all income earners. That is 1 point less than the informed tax ballot and 2 points more than the initial tax ballot – statistically insignificant.
- Meanwhile, 54% support a Republican candidate who supports allowing the 2017 tax cuts to expire for the wealthy, but extending the tax cut for everyone else, and 26% support a Democrat who supports allowing the 2017 tax cut to expire for all income earners. That is a 1-point improvement from the informed tax ballot – statistically insignificant – and an 8-point improvement from the initial tax ballot.
- It is notable that the Republican candidate in this scenario loses reliable Republican votes and target voters and replaces them with more liberal, less reliable voters. This suggests that supporting a tax increase on the wealthy could hurt Republican candidates at the ballot box, particularly in the context of a lower turnout midterm election.