Issue moves votes of Democrats and Independents on ballot test
Sixty-three percent of likely American voters oppose the construction of the FBI’s proposed $3.5 billion consolidated headquarters.
- This includes a majority of Democrats and Independents.
WHY IT MATTERS – Congress will be looking for places to cut spending in this year’s budget, and funding for the new headquarters could end up a politically appealing target, given the high cost of the project and recent FBI scandals.
HOW TO USE THIS DATA – This is a potential wedge AND magnet issue that can pull support away from left-wing candidates and toward those more aligned with America’s new majority.
KEY TAKEAWAYS –
- More than 6 in 10 voters oppose the construction of the new $3.5 billion FBI headquarters.
- This includes majorities of Democrats (54%) and Independents (66%)
- More “strongly oppose” (37%) construction than “somewhat oppose.” (26%)
- A plurality believes that providing funding for the new headquarters would encourage more unethical behavior by the FBI.
- More say it would make no difference than it would make unethical behavior less likely.
- Focusing on the behavior of the FBI doesn’t produce as strong a response as focusing on the cost to taxpayers.
- A GOP candidate who opposes construction of the new $3.5 billion headquarters defeats a Democratic candidate who supports construction by a 30-point margin.
- This is a 24-point swing toward the GOP candidate from the generic ballot.
- Democrats, Independents, and non-white voters are the biggest movers.
BOTTOM LINE – Strong opposition to constructing the new FBI headquarters can drive significant change in vote behavior, particularly among Independents and Democrats. Opposition is driven more by concerns over the cost than the behavior of the FBI.
READ THE REPORT – Click on the image below to view the slideshow or continue to read highlights of the results in the body of the article.
SIXTY-THREE PERCENT OPPOSE CONSTRUCTION – The poll of 2,000 likely voters, conducted by McLaughlin and Associates June 8-11, 2023, asked participants:
“The Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) wants to build a new headquarters located in the suburbs of Washington, DC that will consolidate their area offices. The new headquarters will be larger than the Pentagon and is projected to cost $3.5 billion to build. Do you support or oppose Congress funding the construction of this new $3.5 billion dollar FBI headquarters?”
- 6% – Strongly support
- 18% – Somewhat support
- 26% – Somewhat oppose
- 37% – Strongly oppose
Majorities of every group opposed construction, including Independents (66%) and Democrats (54%).
PLURALITY SAY IT WOULD ENCOURAGE UNETHICAL BEHAVIOR – Participants were also asked:
“The FBI is currently under investigation by Congress for trying to influence election results, entrap members of the Senate by holding false classified briefings, suppress credible evidence of wrongdoing by politically connected individuals, and target Americans for exercising their First Amendment rights, including parents critical of school board decisions.
If Congress approves the construction of this new $3.5 billion dollar FBI headquarters while at the same time investigating the FBI for these potential crimes, does that make it more likely or less likely the FBI would engage in this behavior in the future?”
- 22% – Much more likely
- 21% – Somewhat more likely
- 14% – Somewhat less likely
- 6%- Much less likely
- 37%- No difference
BIG SWING TO GOP IN BALLOT TEST – Participants were also asked to choose between an hypothetical GOP candidate who opposes construction of the new headquarters and a Democratic candidate who supports it.
Which candidate for Congress would you be more likely to support?
- A Republican candidate, who OPPOSES funding the construction of a new $3.5 billion dollar FBI headquarters that is larger than the Pentagon because it is wasteful of taxpayer money and sends the wrong message at a time when the FBI is under Congressional investigation.
- A Democratic candidate, who SUPPORTS the construction of a new $3.5 billion dollar FBI headquarters because the FBI claims it will make them more effective and efficient.
- Don’t Know
- 55% – Republican candidate
- 25% – Democratic candidate
This is a 24-point margin shift in favor of the Republican candidate from the generic ballot (which was Republican +6). The biggest vote shifts come from Independents (26 points) and Democrats (51 points).
This national survey of 2,000 people was conducted from June 8-11, 2023 by McLaughlin & Associates for America’s New Majority Project and has a margin of error of 2.2%.