63% of Americans say they plan to vote early in 2024, a 6-point jump since September.
- This includes a 10-point jump among Republicans to 58%.
WHY IT MATTERS – If more partisan, likely voters utilize early voting, parties and candidates can focus more on turning out less likely, unaffiliated voters on election day. That means the party that gets more of its base to vote early has a strategic advantage.
HOW TO USE THIS DATA – The results show the impact of the parties’ efforts to encourage early voting in the primaries as a warmup for the general election, as well as how the two parties are perceived.
Click on the image below to read the full report…or read the summary below.
Discontent with Biden and the Direction of Country Remains High
- 74% of Americans say the country is on the wrong track, including 78% of Gen Z voters, who are the most negative about the state of the country.
- 41% approve of the job Joe Biden is doing as president. This includes 75% of Democrats, 39% of swing voters, and 10% of Republicans. Just 40% of Gen Z, 58% of blacks, 45% of Hispanics, and 45% of single women approve of Biden, despite him winning those voters by large margins in 2020.
- 83% of New Majority voters say the country is on the wrong track and just 26% approve of Joe Biden. 81% of Left Minority voters approve of Biden.
Generic Ballot Narrows
- Republicans’ lead on the generic ballot has narrowed slightly to 2 points, with a 4-point lead among likely voters.
- Swing voters prefer the GOP candidate 43%-37%, while independents are split 35%-36%.
Economic and Immigration Concerns Dominate
- The rising cost of living continues to be the most important issue to voters, with 48.4% selecting it as one of the three most important issues. This is a 4 % increase from November.
- Border security was selected as one of the top three issues by 23.5% of respondents – an increase of 5.7% from November.
- Job creation (20.4%), Social Security and Medicare (18.1%), and Gun Control (18.1%) round out the top five most selected issues.
- Concerns over the cost of living, job creation and entitlements are similar across partisan lines.
- Concern over border security is driven by Republicans (41%) and independents (23%) while concern over gun control is driven by Democrats (33%).
Losing Focus
- 30% of Americans believe Republicans are focused on the right things – a drop of 7% since August.
- 33% believe Democrats are focused on the right things – a drop of 3% since August.
- Swing voters are particularly negative on the two parties, with just 25% believing Republicans are focused on the right things and 31% saying Democrats are.
- 39% of New Majority voters who are leaning or probably voting GOP in 2024 say Republicans are focused on the right things. That’s a 16-point drop from September.
More Americans Planning to Vote Early
- 63% of Americans plan to vote early in 2024 – a 6-point increase since September.
- 58% of Republicans now plan to vote early in 2024 – a 10-point increase since September.
- 70% of Democrats plan to vote early – a 7-point increase from September.
- The largest increases in plans to early vote came from Gen Z (+14%) and Hispanics (+13%).