State of Play – Trump, GOP Continue to Lead but Biden Improving

Biden’s approval and voter perceptions about the direction of the country have improved this month, thanks to a significant increase in support from minority and Gen Z voters. However, this increase in support has not shown up in the generic or presidential ballot, with the GOP and Trump maintaining modest leads.

The more positive sentiment among minority and younger voters could be an indication of a key part of Biden’s 2020 coalition returning to support his reelection.

Click here to read the full report…or read the summary below.

Wrong Track Still Dominates

  • 73% of Americans say the country is on the wrong track, including 91% of Republicans, 51% of Democrats, 75% of swing voters.
  • 27% of Americans say the country is moving in the right direction. This is a slight increase overall from February, driven by significant increases in positive sentiment among black and Gen Z voters.
  • Left-leaning voters (those who scored 0-5 on the New Majority scale) are also more positive about the direction of the country.

Biden Approval Best Since October

  • 42% of Americans approve of the job Biden is doing as President – his highest approval since October. The improvement is driven by significant improvement among men, minority, and Gen Z voters.
  • However, while Biden has improved among minority and younger voters, he has lost support since February among white and women voters.

GOP Maintains Lead for Congress

  • The GOP has a 4-point lead in the generic ballot for Congress, 47%-43%. This is consistent with the lead they have had for the past eight months.
  • Like Biden’s job approval, Democrats have improved among men and minority voters, but Republicans have improved among women and white voters.  

Trump Leads Biden

  • Trump leads Biden 47%-45%, and 45%-41% among swing voters.
  • Trump has the strongest support from white and Millennial voters, while Biden’s support comes from black, single women, and Gen Z voters.