Republicans Hit New High on Generic Ballot

State of Play – June 22-25, 2023

Republicans hit a new high on the generic ballot among likely voters – even as the right direction / wrong track divide narrowed by 8 points.

  • Meanwhile, Biden’s approval among likely voters is steady in the low to mid 40s.

WHY IT MATTERS – President Joe Biden’s messaging on how “Bidenomics” is helping the American people does not seem to be resonating.

READ THE REPORT – Click on the image below to view the slideshow or continue to read highlights of the results in the body of the article. 

STATE OF PLAY – A July 13-16 poll for America’s New Majority Project conducted by McLaughlin and Associates also revealed:  

Seventy-two percent of Americans fall within America’s New Majority (determined through a screener survey of 13 questions asking respondents to rank agreement on a 0-10 scale).

  • 37% – The conservative base who averaged between an 8 and 10 agreement score.
  • 28% – Persuadable moderates who averaged between 6 and 7 agreement score, and who are not definitely voting Democrat, or probably voting Democrat and strongly approve of Joe Biden.
  • 7% – More liberal voters who are leaning Republican or undecided.
  • NOTE – We have added less likely voters into our regular surveys, so the makeup and intensity of the majority has shifted from previous surveys.

Republicans have a 49-42 lead on the generic ballot among likely voters.

  • This is a new high for Republicans since we began our tracking in May.
  • Among all voters, Republicans lead 47-41 and among less likely voters, Republicans lead 38-33.
  • Republicans lead with swing voters 45-33, Hispanics (54-28) and Whites (51-39) while Democrats lead with Asians (47-38) and Blacks (62-23).
  • Among voters in America’s New Majority, Republicans lead 64-18.

The right direction/wrong track divide is the narrowest since May.

  • 69% of likely voters believe the country is moving in the wrong direction.
  • Among less likely voters, the divide is narrower at 34-66.
  • A majority among every demographic group except Democrats (43-57) believes the U.S. is on the wrong track.
  • Voters in America’s New Majority overwhelmingly believe America is on the wrong track, at 19-82.

Biden’s approval steady at the low/mid 40s.

  • 43% of likely voters approve of the job Joe Biden is doing as president.
  • Only Blacks (+31) and Gen Z (+3) give Biden a positive job approval.
  • All voter groups in America’s New Majority disapprove of the job Joe Biden is doing as president.