State of Play – June 22-25, 2023
Republicans hit a new high on the generic ballot among likely voters – even as the right direction / wrong track divide narrowed by 8 points.
- Meanwhile, Biden’s approval among likely voters is steady in the low to mid 40s.
WHY IT MATTERS – President Joe Biden’s messaging on how “Bidenomics” is helping the American people does not seem to be resonating.
READ THE REPORT – Click on the image below to view the slideshow or continue to read highlights of the results in the body of the article.
STATE OF PLAY – A July 13-16 poll for America’s New Majority Project conducted by McLaughlin and Associates also revealed:
Seventy-two percent of Americans fall within America’s New Majority (determined through a screener survey of 13 questions asking respondents to rank agreement on a 0-10 scale).
- 37% – The conservative base who averaged between an 8 and 10 agreement score.
- 28% – Persuadable moderates who averaged between 6 and 7 agreement score, and who are not definitely voting Democrat, or probably voting Democrat and strongly approve of Joe Biden.
- 7% – More liberal voters who are leaning Republican or undecided.
- NOTE – We have added less likely voters into our regular surveys, so the makeup and intensity of the majority has shifted from previous surveys.
Republicans have a 49-42 lead on the generic ballot among likely voters.
- This is a new high for Republicans since we began our tracking in May.
- Among all voters, Republicans lead 47-41 and among less likely voters, Republicans lead 38-33.
- Republicans lead with swing voters 45-33, Hispanics (54-28) and Whites (51-39) while Democrats lead with Asians (47-38) and Blacks (62-23).
- Among voters in America’s New Majority, Republicans lead 64-18.
The right direction/wrong track divide is the narrowest since May.
- 69% of likely voters believe the country is moving in the wrong direction.
- Among less likely voters, the divide is narrower at 34-66.
- A majority among every demographic group except Democrats (43-57) believes the U.S. is on the wrong track.
- Voters in America’s New Majority overwhelmingly believe America is on the wrong track, at 19-82.
Biden’s approval steady at the low/mid 40s.
- 43% of likely voters approve of the job Joe Biden is doing as president.
- Only Blacks (+31) and Gen Z (+3) give Biden a positive job approval.
- All voter groups in America’s New Majority disapprove of the job Joe Biden is doing as president.