State of Play – August 17-20, 2023

Republicans take 8-Point Lead with Likely Voters

Seventy percent of Americans believe the country is on the wrong track, including 73% of Swing Voters.

Meanwhile, Republicans hold a 6-point lead in the generic ballot with all voters, and an 8 point lead with likely voters.

  • This is the largest lead since May.

WHY IT MATTERS – Americans are still unhappy with the state of the country and that is impacting Biden’s approval and the generic ballot.

READ THE REPORT – Click on the image below to view the slideshow or continue to read highlights of the results in the body of the article. 

STATE OF PLAY – An August 17-20 poll for America’s New Majority Project conducted by McLaughlin and Associates also revealed:

76% of Americans fall within America’s New Majority (determined through a screener survey of 9 questions asking respondents to rank agreement on a 0-10 scale).

  • 48% – The conservative base who averaged between an 8 and 10 agreement score.
  • 23% – Persuadable moderates who averaged between 6-7 agreement score who are not definitely or probably voting Democrat and strongly approve of Joe Biden.
  • 5% – More liberal voters who are leaning Republican or undecided.

Republicans have a 46% to 40% lead among all voters.

  • Among likely voters, Republicans lead 49% to 41%.
  • Among less likely voters, Democrats lead 33% to 27%, with 40% undecided.
  • Republicans lead among swing voters (43% to 34%) and Independents (31% to 29%), with large numbers of both groups undecided.
  • Democrats lead with non-white voters, Gen Z (34% to 50%) and Millennials (34% to 49%).
  • Republicans have a 39-point lead among voters in America’s New Majority (60% to 21%).

Right Track remains steady.

  • Just 31% of all voters say the country is on the right track.
  • That includes 27% of swing voters and 20% of Independents.
  • Democrats (54%) are the only voting group who say the country is on the right track.
  • Just 21% of voters in America’s New Majority say the country is on the right track.

Biden approval still in mid-forties with likely voters.

  • Biden’s approval among likely voters (44%) is steady.
  • Non-white voters, Gen Z (53%), and Millennials (54%) approve of the job Joe Biden is doing as president.
  • Biden is underwater with Independents (37%) and swing voters (41%).
  • Among voters in America’s New Majority, just 30% approve of the job Joe Biden is doing as president.