State of Play – July 27-30, 2023

Biden approval matches May high, but he is still underwater.

Republicans hold a 4-point lead in the generic ballot with all voters, including a 10-point lead with swing voters.

  • This is down slightly from our early July survey due to a rise in undecided Independents and swing voters.

President Joe Biden’s approval is up slightly to match his May high, when we began tracking.

WHY IT MATTERS – The shift could be statistical noise or due to events in the news cycle. It is worth monitoring.

READ THE REPORT – Click on the image below to view the slideshow or continue to read highlights of the results in the body of the article. 

STATE OF PLAY – A July 27-30 poll for America’s New Majority Project conducted by McLaughlin and Associates also revealed:

74% of Americans fall within America’s New Majority (determined through a screener survey of 13 questions asking respondents to rank agreement on a 0-10 scale).

  • 44% – The conservative base who averaged between an 8 and 10 agreement score.
  • 25% – Persuadable moderates who averaged between 6-7 agreement score who are not definitely or probably voting Democrat and strongly approve of Joe Biden.
  • 5% – More liberal voters who are leaning Republican or undecided.

Republicans have a 44% to 40% lead among all voters.

  • Among likely voters, Republicans lead 47% to 42%.
  • Among less likely voters, Republicans lead 29% to 28%, with 44% undecided.
  • Republicans lead among swing voters (42% to 32%) and Independents (30% to 28%), with large numbers undecided.
  • Democrats lead with non-white voters, Gen Z (32% to 48%) and Millennials (39% to 44%).
  • Republicans have a 41-point lead among voters in America’s New Majority (60% to 19%).

Right Track remains steady.

  • Just 31% of all voters say the country is on the right track.
  • That includes 27% of swing voters and 23% of Independents.
  • Democrats (52%) are the only voting group who say the country is on the right track.
  • Just 20% of voters in the New Majority say the country is on the right track.

Biden approval up slightly with likely voters.

  • Biden’s approval among likely voters (45%) matches his May high, when we began tracking.
  • Non-white voters and Gen Z (55%) approve of the job Joe Biden is doing as president.
  • Biden is underwater with Independents (40%) and swing voters (41%).
  • Among voters in America’s New Majority, just 28% approve of the job Joe Biden is doing as president.